How do Pre-K funding trajectories shape later academic outcomes, and for whom?

• In Event: AERA Roundtable Session Thursday 4:15 pm - Gold 4
  In Roundtable Session: Innovating Evaluation: Data-Driven Approaches to Understanding Impact

Abstract

This study (1) identifies trends in North Carolina Pre-K funding to each county (per child) across years (2002–2015) by using group-based trajectory modeling; (2) links funding patterns to third-grade academic performance (2006-2019) by using growth curve modeling; and (3) explores whether effects vary by county characteristics like poverty and rurality. Two funding groups emerged: high-spending (60 counties) and low-spending (40 counties). High-spending counties were more rural and socioeconomically disadvantaged. Although initially lower-performing, they showed faster academic growth over time, suggesting higher pre-K investment narrows achievement gaps. Subgroup results were consistent. Findings support that NC Pre-K funding aligns with equity goals and that greater per-child investments are associated with improved academic outcomes, highlighting the program’s long-term impact.

Authors

• Yu Bai, Duke University

• Kenneth A. Dodge, Duke University

• Jade M. Jenkins, University of California - Irvine

• Tyler Watts, Teachers College, Columbia University

• Siobhan O'Muircheartaigh, Duke University