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This study explores how only-child Chinese international students experience academic self-efficacy across the undergraduate and graduate stages of U.S. higher education. Framing only-child identity as a sociocultural outcome of China’s One-Child Policy rather than a family trait, the study examines how shifting peer dynamics and internalized family expectations shape students’ confidence, motivation, and social navigation. Using semi-structured interviews and vignette-based prompts with 8–10 participants, the study adopts a comparative case study design guided by self-efficacy theory, social learning theory, and family systems theory. By comparing how students at each stage navigate academic challenges and social expectations, the research offers a more layered understanding of how only-child identity interacts with different educational contexts, informing more responsive and developmentally grounded support systems.