Winners and Losers of the National Enrollment Decline: Institutional Characteristics Driving First-Time-in-College Enrollment Trends

• In Event: AERA Roundtable Session Sunday 1:45 pm
  In Roundtable Session: Predictors of institutional Sustainability: enrollment and other considerations

Abstract

Undergraduate enrollment declines have raised concerns for U.S. higher education institutions as demographic shifts reduce the number of college-bound students. While national trends are documented, little research has systematically examined how many institutions are experiencing substantial first-time-in-college (FTIC) enrollment declines or what institutional factors are associated with these trends. This study analyzed FTIC enrollment from 2019 to 2023 across 493 public and 679 private not-for-profit four-year institutions using multi-level Poisson regression models. Results showed that 30% of institutions experienced declines of 10% or more, while others maintained or grew enrollments. Findings highlight how admissions practices and student composition shape enrollment trajectories, informing strategies for higher education policymakers and institutional leaders to support access and institutional sustainability.

Authors

• Dong Chen, University of Arizona

• Anwesha Guha, University of Oregon

• Kurt Williams, North Dakota State University

• Amleset Abrhale, Howard University