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This study examines long-term trends in women’s degree attainment in STEM fields and the influence of federally funded institutional expenditures from 1997 to 2023, with projections through 2035. Drawing on Expectancy-Value Theory and Goal Congruity Theory, the study uses Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models to analyze national data across five STEM disciplines and three academic levels. Findings reveal field-specific and level-specific progress, with the strongest gains in computer science and engineering. Federally funded R&D expenditures positively influence women’s representation, though effects vary by discipline. Notably, some reciprocal relationships emerge, with women's gains also predicting future funding. The study offers critical insights for equity-driven policy and funding strategies to support sustained progress for women in STEM.