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Positive mathematics identity contributes to STEM major selection, and both are associated with long-term persistence in STEM pathways. This study used a nationally representative sample of ninth grade students (N = 21,444) to illuminate how high school math identity predicts the likelihood of choosing a STEM major. Framed by socialization theory (Martin, 2000), school factors, parental factors, and demographic variables were included as covariates. Logistic regression models showed students with a stronger math identity were nearly twice as likely to choose a STEM major. Math identity emerged as the single strongest predictor of STEM major selection, compared to all other covariates. Implications of the findings for practice and future research are discussed.