Risk and Protective Factors for Turnover Intentions Among Early Childhood Educators in Indiana

• In Event: AERA Roundtable Session Wednesday 9:45 am - Gold 1
  In Roundtable Session: Workforce Experiences in Early Care and Education

Abstract

This study investigated risk and protective factors for turnover intentions among 490 early childhood educators in Indiana using both traditional regression and machine learning approaches. Educators from licensed programs serving children ages 0-5 completed a survey in April 2024 assessing different elements of well-being and turnover intentions. A random forest decision tree model identified mental health risks and organizational commitment as the most influential predictors of turnover. The linear regression model further revealed higher organizational commitment predicted lower turnover intention (B = -0.37, p < .001) and greater mental health risks predicted higher turnover intention (B = 0.09, p < .05). Findings underscore the value of integrating data-driven and theory-informed methods to better understand the key drivers of turnover.

Authors

• Jennifer Finders, Colorado State University

• Shawn L. Carlson, Southwest Minnesota State University

• Ellen Litkowski, Georgia State University

• Megan Purcell, Purdue University