Who Stays, Who Leaves? A National Survival Analysis of Chile’s School Principals

• In Event: Principal Labor Market Outcomes: Capturing the Influences of Race, Place, and School Climate

Abstract

Principal turnover disrupts school improvement, yet Latin-American evidence remains scarce. Grounded in mobility–stability theory and international turnover research, we analyse Chile’s 2015–2023 national payroll censuses (≈9,000 principals, 11,000 schools). Discrete-time Gompertz models quantify annual hazards, test effects of gender, age, experience, and governance, and simulate universal first-year mentoring. Tenure lowers exit risk by 9 % annually, but its protective effect varies: women see sharper declines, whereas public-school heads confront a 69 % higher hazard than counterparts in fully private schools. These patterns reveal where retention challenges are most acute and point to targeted, early-career support as a promising lever for strengthening leadership stability nationwide.

Authors

• Christian Lazcano, Universidad del Desarrollo

• Soledad Ortuzar, Universidad del Desarrollo

• Sara Galilea, Universidad del Desarrollo

• Pablo Siegel, Universidad del Desarrollo

• María Paz Arriagada, Universidad del Desarrollo