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This mixed-methods study examined how informal STEM learning experiences influence high school students' STEM career intentions using Social Cognitive Career Theory. Analyzing 331 high school students through PLS-SEM and 30 qualitative interviews, we found informal learning significantly enhanced STEM self-efficacy (β = 0.559, p < 0.001), which influenced STEM interests (β = 0.584, p < 0.001) and career intentions (β = 0.452, p < 0.001). Two mediation pathways emerged: informal learning → self-efficacy → interests → career intentions, and informal learning → self-efficacy → outcome expectations → interests → career intentions. Perceived environmental support significantly predicted career intentions (β = 0.209, p = 0.001). Findings provide theoretical foundations for designing effective informal STEM programs to cultivate future STEM talent.