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This study examines whether academic extracurricular tutoring enhances middle school students’ academic performance. Using 2023 Jiangsu Basic Education Quality Monitoring data, we employ multiple linear regression, propensity score matching (PSM), and Shapley value decomposition to analyze heterogeneous effects of psychological capital and tutoring across academic strata. Results indicate:(1) Psychological capital drives academic improvement in low-performers, while extracurricular tutoring significantly undermines their intrinsic motivation; (2) High-performers show a "ceiling effect" for tutoring, with family SES critical for upward mobility;(3) Tutoring yields short-term gains but is suboptimal for sustained improvement. These findings inform post-"Double Reduction" policy interventions: low-performers need psychological empowerment; mid/high-performers require resource optimization; high-performers benefit from structural resource access.