Do Dual Language Programs Lead to Increased School Enrollment? Examining the Relationship Between Program Founding and Enrollment

• In Event: Dual Language Immersion Programs in LAUSD and the Potential for Equitable Learning Opportunities

Abstract

Amidst declining public-school enrollment, two-way dual language (TWDL) programs are increasingly implemented as a strategy to attract students. This study investigates the relationship between TWDL program founding and subsequent school enrollment in the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD), a district experiencing significant enrollment decline and a simultaneous expansion of TWDL programs. Utilizing twelve years of school-level data (2010-2022), we employ a fixed-effects model to analyze changes in entry-grade enrollment following program adoption. The study also presents case studies illustrating the diverse enrollment trajectories of TWDL schools, highlighting the influence of local neighborhood demographics and program characteristics.

Research Questions:
1. What is the relationship between TWDL adoption and post-founding enrollment? How does this look for various racial/ethnic and linguistic student subgroups?
2. What schools highlight the divergent enrollment trajectories of TWDL programs?

Methods:
For our first research question, we examine the relationship between TWDL program founding and lowest grade enrollment (which in our case is either kindergarten, first, or second grade). We hypothesize that enrollment may be positively related to program founding, as the TWDL program draws students from both in and out of the zone (per Los Angeles Unified policy, a TWDL program is a program of choice and may enroll a student from outside of the school’s zone although in-zone students and their siblings are given priority). We examine these patterns by estimating the relationship between TWDL program founding and entry-level grade enrollment, using a one-way fixed effects model with year fixed effects to account for temporal trends.

We then answer research question 2 using a quantitative case study approach to highlight a set of four cases representative of diverse TWDL school enrollment patterns across the district. This effort attempts to show the variation across schools and highlight cases that may diverge from the average. Following Gerring (2008) and Seawright & Gerring (2009), we select cases using variables of interest including enrollment change both before and after founding. We highlight a set of typical, and extreme cases to underscore the how TWDL program founding is highly dependent on local contexts.

Findings: Our findings indicate a modest but statistically significant increase in enrollment associated with TWDL program founding. On average, schools see an increase of approximately two students in their entry-level grades post-implementation. However, these gains are not uniform across all student subgroups. The analysis reveals a statistically significant increase in the enrollment of White students, while the impact on Hispanic/Latinx, Black/African American, and Asian American student enrollment is not statistically significant.

Implications: Our focused attention on enrollment is worth exploring as the district explicitly used or considered TWDL expansion as a method to stave off enrollment decline and recently the state’s superintendent of schools advocated for the use of dual immersion as a tool to increase enrollment. Our findings suggest that while TWDL programs may be a viable tool to bolster enrollment, the benefits are not distributed equally across racial and ethnic groups, raising important equity considerations for policymakers and school districts.

Authors

• Clemence Darriet, University of California - Los Angeles

• Lucrecia Santibanez, University of California - Los Angeles

• Erica Frankenberg, Pennsylvania State University

• Sarah Asson, Education Northwest

• Claudia G. Cervantes-Soon, Arizona State University

• Francesca López, University of Wisconsin - Madison