Predicting or Preventing? Critical Perspectives on Dropout Monitoring Tools in Secondary Education in Latin America

• In Event: From Risk to Retention: Insights on Dropout Prevention and Digitalisation

Abstract

Objectives
This paper analyses school dropout in secondary education across Latin America, with a particular emphasis on Argentina, and evaluates the role of monitoring and Early Warning Systems in mitigating this issue. The aim is to critically reflect on the scope and limitations of these tools when not accompanied by pedagogical and social policies aimed at effective intervention. The paper addresses two primary objectives: (1) to characterise, drawing on secondary literature, the expansion and outcomes of Early Warning Systems in Latin America while considering experiences from the United States and Europe; and (2) to conduct a comprehensive analysis of local experiences in Argentina, focusing on the design and implementation of these systems as well as the extent to which they align with existing support policies for at-risk students.
Theoretical perspectives
The paper adopts a critical and holistic perspective on school dropout, conceptualising it as a complex and multifactorial process intertwined with structural social conditions alongside institutional and pedagogical factors. The literature indicates that predictive modelling has been extensively studied concerning dropout rates; however, actual intervention practices remain scarce, often limited and heavily reliant on teacher perceptions or mechanisms centred solely on academic failure. This presentation draws upon approaches that challenge the technocratic reduction of these tools and underscore the risk of labelling students without a robust framework of care and inclusion.
Methods
The methodology incorporates a documentary analysis of specialised literature and regional educational policies in conjunction with a qualitative case study conducted in Argentina. The methods employed include semi-structured interviews with officials responsible for designing and implementing monitoring systems across four jurisdictions in Argentina, as well as an analysis of pertinent regulations, official documents, action plans, and policy evaluations.
Data sources
The sources of data encompass contemporary regional studies on school dropout and student trajectory monitoring, international reports, policy documents, and interviews with policymakers and educational management teams. The study also examines recent experiences from countries such as Uruguay, Brazil, Chile, Guatemala, Peru, and Mexico, which have expanded the use of these tools, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, it considers European models as well as U.S. frameworks that have been operational since 2005.
Results
Preliminary findings indicate that adequate interventions do not invariably accompany enhanced detection capabilities. While Argentina has made some progress through programmes such as the national system Integrated Digital Educational Information System (SInIDE for its acronym in Spanish) and provincial initiatives in the provinces of Mendoza and Entre Ríos, a significant gap persists between the generation of alerts and the implementation of sustained support measures. This disconnect ultimately limits the real impact of these systems and, in certain instances, may exacerbate processes of segmentation or stigmatisation.

Scholarly/scientific significance
This paper contributes to the discourse surrounding the utilisation of educational data for equity, emphasising that Early Warning Systems yield pedagogical and social relevance only when integrated within structural policies of care, support, and inclusion. It provides insights for devising more effective and responsive policies within education systems characterised by profound inequalities in Latin America.

Authors

• Felicitas M. Acosta, Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento

• Néstor López, Universidad Pedagógica Nacional