Big Fish or Little Pond? National Evidence on the Relationship between Transferring and Athletic Performance within Division I Men’s College Basketball

• In Event: Data, Play, and Power: Sports as Culturally Sustaining Learning Sites

Abstract

One of the defining features of higher education in the United States is the preeminent role played by intercollegiate athletics (Aquilina & Henry, 2010; Beyer & Hannah, 2000; Chu, 1982). Over 1,000 colleges and universities in the United States compete across three divisions in 24 varsity sports under the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA), with about 350 institutions competing at the most competitive Division I (DI) level (NCAA, 2025b). In 2023, NCAA Division I institutions reported nearly $19 billion in total revenues, the majority of which was generated by men’s basketball and football programs (NCAA, 2024a). A significant portion of revenue comes from media rights to athletic competitions, highlighting the vast social and cultural power of college athletics in the U.S. as well. The 2025 DI NCAA men’s basketball championship attracted roughly 21.1 million TV viewers (NCAA, 2025c), while the 2025 college football playoff national championship reached 26.1 viewers, making it the most-watched non-NFL sporting event of the past year (ESPN PR, 2025).
Given the privileged role that athletics occupies within U.S. colleges and universities, as well as the social, financial, and symbolic rewards associated with excelling in competitive athletics, both during college and beyond, it is unsurprising that student athletes have long prioritized seeking out the “best” athletic opportunities available to them. This dynamic has become even more pronounced in an environment where transferring from one college to another carries few penalties and where new policies allow athletes to financially benefit from their talents. Recent policy changes have not only made transferring easier but also more attractive to student athletes, leading to a surge in public attention on transfer student athletes, particularly within revenue-generating sports like basketball and football (Clay & Handy-Hamilton, 2025; Fanta, 2025; Gleeson, 2021; Hummer, 2024; Hummer & Zenitz, 2025; Olsen, 2023; Trotter, 2025; VanHaaren, 2022). Yet, the empirical literature is largely unsettled on the question of whether, to what extend, and in what ways, transferring matters from student athletes’ trajectories. Drawing from national data on individual- and team-level athletic performance in DI men’s college basketball between the 2002-03 and 2023-24 seasons, this paper examines the athletic consequences of transferring amongst men’s college basketball players. Our findings confirm public speculation about the dramatic rise in transfer rates among student athletes in recent years and suggest transferring may be beneficial for the athletic performance of some athletes but counterproductive for others based on performance levels.

Authors

• Kendall Cole, Stanford University

• Francis A. Pearman, Stanford University