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Special education funding caps limit the percentage of students for whom districts receive state funding, raising concerns about equity and compliance with IDEA. This study examines Washington State’s cap increases—from 12.7% to 13.5% in 2016–17 and 16% in 2023–24—using district-level data and regression models to estimate causal effects. Districts near or above the cap saw significantly larger increases in identification rates after cap changes, particularly in higher-need placements, while funding gaps persisted for high-poverty and rural districts. Findings suggest caps have limited impact on controlling statewide identification but create inequities in funding and access. Policy alternatives, such as weighted or tiered funding, may better balance fiscal predictability with equitable access to special education.