Gendered STEM Career Aspirations and Tracking Effects: Cross-National Insights from PISA 2022 Germany and U.S.

• In Event: Division H VP Session: Past Designs, Present Tensions, Future Paths: Reimagining Educational Assessment Across Contexts

Abstract

This study investigates how girls’ expectations for STEM careers differ between the United States and Germany and examines whether structural features of secondary education shape gendered aspirations. Using the 2022 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) data, we focus on how educational systems and vocational tracking interact with individual-level factors, such as prior mathematics and science achievement and socioeconomic status, to influence girls’ likelihood of expecting a STEM occupation by age 30. Our analysis is guided by theories of educational stratification and gender socialization, emphasizing how institutional opportunity structures condition career expectations.

Germany’s highly stratified system sorts students into vocational and academic tracks during lower secondary school, potentially reinforcing gendered pathways and limiting flexibility in STEM preparation. In contrast, the U.S. comprehensive secondary model delays formal tracking and allows more flexible course-taking. Prior literature indicates that, despite near parity in average math and science performance by age 15, girls remain less likely than boys to aspire to STEM careers, and these gaps may be amplified in systems that institutionalize early specialization.
PISA 2022 provides student-level microdata on expected occupations (coded via ISCO-08), academic achievement, school program type, and socioeconomic background, enabling a cross-national comparison. We first calculate descriptive statistics to quantify gender gaps in STEM career expectations in each country. Logistic regression models are then used to estimate the probability of aspiring to STEM careers, run separately by country to assess the role of achievement, SES, and school track. In Germany, interaction terms between gender and track allow us to test whether vocational pathways intensify disparities. Pooled models test gender-by-country interactions to examine how structural differences moderate aspiration patterns. All analyses apply OECD sampling weights and plausible value procedures.

Preliminary findings reveal persistent gender gaps in STEM career expectations despite narrowing performance differences. In the U.S., 18% of boys and 11% of girls report STEM aspirations by age 30, while in Germany, 21% of boys and 8% of girls expect STEM careers. These differences persist across achievement levels, with high-performing girls still underrepresented in STEM expectations. Interaction results suggest that Germany’s vocational programs show particularly wide gender gaps, highlighting the role of early structural sorting in shaping aspirations.

By leveraging a cross-national dataset, this study contributes to the literature on educational stratification and gendered opportunity structures. It demonstrates how institutional arrangements interact with individual resources to shape career trajectories, offering new insights into why gender disparities in STEM aspirations persist despite achievement convergence. These findings are relevant to policymakers and educators aiming to reduce gender imbalances in STEM fields by addressing both individual-level factors and system-level constraints. In line with AERA 2026’s theme, the study underscores how historical structures and contemporary policies intersect to influence youth career pathways and the future STEM workforce.

Author

• Haofei Li, The Ohio State University