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This study aims to explore and predict educational inequity in undergraduate STEM active learning classrooms. First, theorized by control-value theory and self-determinate theory, and motivated by active learning classroom observational studies, we applied Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling (BSEM) to examine how students’ appraisals of classroom climate, their affective and motivational outcomes, and instructors’ active-learning practices jointly influence student academic performance. Second, we leverage posterior distributions from BSEM to generate predictions of student learning outcomes from students from different identity groups. the prediction provides equity-minded instructors an opportunity to reflect on their practices and classroom climate to promote educational equity and prevent inequities from manifesting. This analysis contributes to research on intervention tools that aim to disrupt education inequity.