Effect of College Openings on County-Level COVID-19 Cases

• In Event: AERA Roundtable Session 13
  In Roundtable Session: COVID-19's Impact on Higher Education's Sociopolitical Landscape

Abstract

This study employed Bayesian Structural Time-Series (BSTS) models to evaluate the causal effects of Fall 2020 college openings on the county-level COVID-19 cases in 622 U.S. counties and further examined the associations between opening approaches (in-person, online, and hybrid) and county-level incidence. The results showed only 16.9% of studied counties experienced a COVID-19 case increase during the first 21 days of the Fall 2020 semester. There were no significant associations between the school opening approach (in-person, online, and hybrid) and county-level case increase. The finding revealed that those college reopening efforts and guidance could potentially minimize the risk of COVID-19 spread regardless of the opening approach.

Authors

• Chi-Ning Chang, The University of Kansas

• Laura J. Malagon-Palacios, University of Kansas

• Hsiang-yu Chien, Texas A&M University - College Station