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Academically challenged students’ vision of future self and self-regulation to achieve the vision could promote those students’ academic success. This study investigated how probationary students’ identity-based motivation (important mindset and impossible mindset) and future-oriented motivation (endogenous instrumentality) predict their self-beliefs and self-regulation after controlling for past achievement. The results indicated that probationary students’ important mindset is crucial for fostering academic self-concept and self-efficacy for learning. However, the impossible mindset can deteriorate those factors. Both important mindset and endogenous instrumentality are imperative for promoting persistent academic possible selves. Understanding the roles of identity-based and future-oriented motivation would be key to supporting probationary students’ long-term academic success.