Health and Climate Benefits of Solar Photovoltaic in European Countries and the Role of Imports

• In Event: Resilience in Action: Insights into Private and Public Sector Responses to Climate Risks

Abstract

Solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment has grown exponentially in European countries, yet its climate and health implications remain under-reported. European countries are leading global climate action through ambitious carbon neutrality commitments, actively phasing out fossil fuels, and increasing solar PV deployment. The EU Solar Energy Strategy targets more than 320 GW of solar PV capacity by 2025 - double the 2021 levels - and nearly 600 GW by 2030. Global supply chains have enabled this transition by driving dramatic cost reductions, with the average installed cost of solar PV falling by 83% between 2010 and 2022. European solar deployment heavily relies on these supply chains, with imported modules accounting for 84% of installations over the past five years.

Method: This study focuses on eight major European solar markets: Germany, France, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Italy, Belgium, Greece, and Spain. We quantify the climate and human health effects of solar PV generation across these countries from 2015-2021, with particular attention to imported solar PV's role. Our framework estimates fossil fuel displacement from solar generation and analyzes how imported solar PV contributes to these benefits. We combine statistical modeling of hourly electricity generation data, air quality simulation using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System, and electricity trade data analysis. To accurately attribute benefits to imported panels, we account for the temporal gap between import and installation by applying a two-year lag.

Results: Our research reveals that solar generation affects both domestic fossil fuel generation and electricity imports. Solar generation during this period reduced emissions significantly: 117 thousand tons of SOx, 188 thousand tons of NOx, 1.6 thousand tons of PM2.5, and 46.92 million tons of CO2. These emission reductions led to air quality improvements that varied by region, with the greatest benefits in western Germany. These improvements prevented an estimated 12,236 premature deaths across the eight countries. When monetized, the combined climate and health benefits amount to $44.4 billion, with health benefits accounting for 97.9% of the value. Imported solar PV contributed 69% of these benefits.

Policy implications: Our findings have important implications as European countries balance domestic manufacturing ambitions with the benefits of global supply chains. The significant health co-benefits suggest that renewable energy policies should be integrated with air quality management strategies, particularly in regions with high population density and persistent air quality challenges. The cross-border effects demonstrate the need for coordinated European policies on renewable energy and grid integration. Policymakers should carefully weigh the trade-offs between supply chain localization and deployment pace, developing an approach that maintains cost and scale advantages while strategically building domestic capacity.

Author

• Kaifang Luo
  Presenting Author