A negative impact of cross-strait tension on renewable energy? Using 2024 national survey in Taiwan

• In Event: Factors Affecting Energy Transitions: Politics, Information, and Policies

Abstract

Conflicts have become more frequent worldwide, even in regions once considered low-risk, as exemplified by the Russo-Ukrainian War since 2022. Similarly, cross-strait tensions between Taiwan and China have escalated over the past five years, marked by increased Chinese air and naval operations after 2020. While growing regional security concerns have prompted discussions on political stability, war timelines, citizens’ mental health and civil defense strategies, limited research has examined how imminent conflict risks shape public opinion, particularly on energy policy.

Given that public support significantly influences policy decisions in democratic regimes, this study explores whether perceptions of military threats affect energy preferences. Based on a national telephone survey of 1,200 respondents conducted in November 2024, we find that individuals who perceive an imminent risk of war are less likely to support the development of renewable energy power plants. Instead, this risk perception increases support for nuclear power, particularly among pan-KMT supporters. We argue that individuals anticipating shorter time horizons support current energy production and oppose major energy transition.

This research contributes to the literature on public support for energy policy by highlighting the critical role of perceived war risks. As geopolitical conflicts intensify and trade barriers increase, the pursuit of energy security and self-sufficiency hinges not only on access to critical minerals for renewable energy development but also on the ability to build public consensus on energy policy. When public opinion on energy development becomes deeply polarized, the space for policy negotiation narrows, leading to shifts in investment priorities that align with electoral outcomes. Over time, such policy uncertainty not only reduces the efficiency of government investment, decreases foreign direct investment but also hampers labor development.

Authors

• Jou Fei Huang, Academia Sinica
  Presenting Author

• Thung-Hong Lin, Academia Sinica
  Non-Presenting Co-Author