The Effects of Ongoing Internal Immigration Enforcement on the U.S. Agricultural Labor Supply

• In Event: Policy and Precarity: The Effects of Immigration Enforcement and Legal Status on Migrant Outcomes

Abstract

This article examines the impact of immigration enforcement on the U.S. agricultural labor supply using a novel empirical approach that leverages time and geographic variation in immigration-related arrests. Unlike previous research that has relied on specific policy changes, we demonstrate that unexpected increases in enforcement intensity have a temporary but costly impact on labor supply decisions among non-citizen farmworkers. Analyzing Current Population Survey data and immigration-related arrest records, we find that unexpected increases in immigration arrests decrease labor force participation (LFP) among non-citizen farmworkers by up to 3.2 percentage points and reduce weekly work hours by as much as 17% per month. These effects translate to a 1.3 percentage point decline in LFP and a 6.6% reduction in weekly hours worked across the agricultural workforce during months experiencing heightened immigration enforcement. Our results suggest that localized enforcement exerts downward pressure on immigrant populations even during periods when policies are not activated, affecting more areas of the country where labor-intensive agriculture dominates. Given persistent agricultural labor shortages and the reliance of farmers on undocumented workers, our findings highlight the potential impact of mass deportations on U.S. agriculture and the food security of the country.

Author

• Alejandro Gutierrez-Li, North Carolina State University
  Presenting Author