Full-Day Kindergarten and Enrollment Patterns: Evidence from Massachusetts

• In Event: Early childhood care and education enrollment: Policy drivers and impacts

Abstract

Background

Public school enrollment has been declining in recent years, a trend worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic. Fewer students enrolling means districts receive less funding, as state and local education budgets in most states are directly tied to enrollment numbers. The funding formula provides a base amount per student, with additional allocations for special education students, English language learners, and lower-income students. As a result, declining enrollment poses significant financial challenges for public school districts.

Our focus turns to the very foundation of the public school system: kindergarten. While much research on full-day kindergarten (FDK) and early childhood education has centered on individual student outcomes—such as test scores (Humphries et al. 2024; Deming 2009; Gray-Lobe, Pathak, and Walters 2022), long-run human capital gain (Bailey, Sun, and Timpe 2021; Deming 2009), and even parents’ labor market outcomes (Gibbs, Wikle, and Wilson 2024; Humphries et al. 2024)—there has been limited attention to how FDK affects public school finances, particularly in terms of attracting and retaining students. This study aims to address that gap by evaluating whether FDK can serve as a policy tool for public school recruitment and retention through an event study approach.

Research Questions

We explore:

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  Does FDK increase public school kindergarten enrollment and keep students in later grades?

  
  


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  How do these effects vary across districts serving different student populations?

  
  

Data Collection and Analysis

We use publicly available enrollment data from Massachusetts’ E2C Research and Data Hub, covering all public and charter districts since 2006, with demographic details at the district level. Non-public school enrollment data since 2002 allows us to track shifts between sectors. Using an event study framework, we analyze K-2 enrollment before and after districts introduce FDK. Our model includes district fixed effects, year fixed effects, and indicators for lead and lag years relative to FDK adoption to track enrollment shifts before and after FDK introduction.

Preliminary Findings

FDK increases full-day kindergarten enrollment, mainly from students shifting from half-day programs. Public kindergarten enrollment stabilizes or slightly increases after FDK introduction, with similar retention effects in grades 1 and 2. FDK does not significantly draw students from private kindergarten, but we observe a later decline in private school enrollment, suggesting some families remain in public schools after starting in FDK. This study provides the first empirical analysis of FDK’s impact on public school enrollment. Our findings suggest FDK may help mitigate enrollment declines, with implications for school finance, staffing, and resource allocation. Further research will explore district-level differences.

Authors

• Mingyan Ma, Boston University
  Presenting Author

• Abigail Francis, Boston University
  Non-Presenting Co-Author