The Difference a Day Makes: Can Changes to US Criminal Misdemeanor Sentencing Influence Deportation and Crime?

• In Event: The Consequences of Decentralized Immigration Enforcement

Abstract

Between 2001 and 2022, nearly 6.5 million noncitizens were deported by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), often for low-level offenses, resulting in widespread economic and social harm. Because the federal government relies heavily on the criminal legal system (CLS) to funnel immigrants into deportation proceedings, even minor conviction can trigger removal. In response, eight states have enacted “364-day laws,” reducing the maximum penalty for certain misdemeanors by a single day to protect immigrants from deportation. This study uses a difference-in-differences design to assess the causal effects of these reforms on two outcomes: entry into the deportation system (measured via Notices to Appear and immigration court backlogs) and public safety (measured via crime and drug-related death rates). We hypothesize that 364-day laws reduce deportation exposure without increasing crime, aligning with research suggesting that immigrant communities are not linked to higher crime rates and that decoupling ICE from local law enforcement may improve public trust. By evaluating the impacts of a narrowly tailored policy intervention, this project provides timely, scalable evidence for states seeking to protect immigrant communities while maintaining public safety.

Authors

• Alberto Ortega, Indiana University
  Presenting Author

• Joaquin Alfredo-Angel Rubalcaba, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
  Non-Presenting Co-Author