Upward mobility in the green sector for frontline fossil fuel workers

• In Event: Planning for Climate and Economic Resilience

Abstract

 

1.5 million frontline fossil fuel workers in the United States face job loss if fossil fuel extraction is phased out. Public policies focused on creating green jobs, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and the CHIPS and Science Act, promote horizontal career mobility for displaced fossil fuel workers into comparable blue-collar jobs. Workers who make this horizontal shift require limited retraining but my suffer wage cuts. This myopic analysis casts doubt on the green sector as a viable alternative source of jobs.

A more accurate assessment of the green sector would consider workers’ opportunities to ascend the career ladder and to earn high(er) wages over their careers. Do frontline fossil fuel workers have greater opportunities for career advancement, for instance into science and engineering (S&E) positions and managerial positions, in the green sector? If so, does this translate into wage gains? Do they have viable job progression and skills pathways to secure those positions in the green sector that are absent in the fossil fuel sector?

We leverage the resumes of 190,648 frontline fossil fuel workers to track individuals’ careers in the period 2000-2023. We use proprietary data from Revelio, a labor market analysis company, alongside administrative data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Our analysis reveals several key findings. [1] Workers who shift from fossil fuels to the green sector are twice as likely to hold managerial positions and 2.5 times more likely to hold science and engineering positions than their peers who remain in the fossil sector. [2]. Fossil fuel workers that take up S&E positions in the green sector earn 1.3 times more than peers in the fossil fuel sector and those with managerial positions earn 1.1 times more than peers in the fossil fuel sector. This wage premium results in sizable earnings gains over workers’ careers. [3] Our analysis reveals that frontline fossil fuel workers can secure these positions by taking specific series of steppingstone jobs and skilling pathways. Skill deepening into engineering-relevant skills, with skills measured prior to the job switch, increases the probability of getting a science and engineering occupation, while skill diversification increases odds of obtaining a managerial occupation.

Moving forward, these results will inform more advanced retraining programs that are tailored to the aspirations and needs of specific groups of workers. Those who aspire to management or science and engineering positions may be empowered to do so by retraining programs that facilitate these types of skill acquisition. Our findings imply that workforce development programs, such as those funded by the CHIPS Act and Economic Development Administration, when catering to fossil fuel workers, should build skills that facilitate upward mobility in addition to promoting horizontal flexibility.

Author

• Shanti Gamper-Rabindran, University of Pittsburgh
  Presenting Author