Forecasting Teacher Shortages: Projecting Hiring Needs and the New Teacher Pipeline in New York State

• In Event: Sustaining the Teacher Labor Force

Abstract

Scholars emphasize the highly localized nature of teacher labor markets. While the supply of teachers in some subjects, regions, and district types might be sufficient, shortages in others can be severe, making it difficult to provide adequate service for students.  Prior evidence suggests that shortages in math, science, special education and bilingual education, in rural and urban areas, and in high poverty schools are most common.  Although awareness of the subjects and regions that have historically faced shortages is useful, policy makers would benefit from projections of teacher supply and demand in specific markets.  Using data from New York State Department of Education (NYSED), this study will develop and implement methods for projecting teacher hiring needs and the pipeline of newly certified teachers by subject, region, and type of district for the period 2026 through 2035.  Taken together, this information will provide early warning of emerging teacher shortages for NYSED officials.   

We will draw on teacher employment data from NYSED to project teacher hiring needs from 2025 through 2035 using methods that combine econometric modeling of teacher turnover, enrollment projections, and actuarial forecasting methods.  These forecasting methods provide more accurate projections than simple extrapolation of prior trends in hiring by carefully considering the current distribution of teachers by age, experience, and other characteristics.  These methods also allow careful examination of the sensitivity of projections to changes in assumptions about factors that influence turnover and enrollment growth. 

To project the pipeline of newly certified teachers, we will use teacher certification data that includes the institution where the teacher completed coursework required for certification, date and subject of certification, and individual identifiers that allow linking with the teacher employment database.  We will use this data to examine trends in the number of certifications granted for each year from 2010 through 2024, differentiating by subject of certification and region of the teacher preparation program.  We will also merge certification data with employment files to determine how many newly certified teachers are likely to enter teaching, where and in what types of districts individuals who complete specific teacher preparation programs are likely to accept teaching positions, and the share of hiring needs that are typically filled by individuals with no or limited prior teaching experience. These analyses will allow us to assess the adequacy of the current teacher pipelines and identify areas of need. 

We have recently signed a data sharing agreement with the NYS Education Department and expect to have the data to implement the planned analysis by the end of April.  We will complete the proposed analysis prior to the conference.

Authors

• Robert Bifulco
  Presenting Author

• Michah Weitzman Rothbart, Syracuse University
  Non-Presenting Co-Author