Modeling Psychological Variables that Mediate the Relationship between Socioeconomic Status and Education Outcomes

• In Event: Drivers of Educational Attainment

Abstract

Socioeconomic status (SES) - as measured by household income, parents’ education, and parental assets- is a predictor of children’s postsecondary (PS) attainment. A large body of literature has found that young adults hailing from households with low income, limited assets, or whose parents don’t have college degrees are less likely to complete college degrees than higher-SES students.

Researchers have proposed multiple explanations for these disparities, including the role of educational expectations. Identity-Based Motivation Theory predicts that students with more salient college- or career-going expectations are more motivated and achieve higher grades in school. Several studies have examined the relationships among SES, PS expectations, and college outcomes. For example, researchers have found that educational expectations mediate relationships between income/assets and academic outcomes, as measured in a variety of ways, including performance on math and reading tests, high school graduation, indices of high school engagement, and college entry.

Critical gaps remain in our understanding of the relationship between SES, PS expectations, and college outcomes. First, this line of research has not explored how PS expectations mediate degree outcomes, which is crucial, as students who enroll but do not graduate do not reap the same economic benefits as those who do. Second, existing research has largely overlooked a factor linking SES and educational expectations: students’ perceived ability to pay. According to Elliott et al. (2011), children are more likely to hold a future identity that requires post-secondary education “if the costs of college feel manageable and the benefits feel salient.”  In other words, SES might affect not only the actual ability to pay, but also the perceived ability to pay, which can affect an adolescent’s PS expectations and subsequent college outcomes.

I address these gaps using longitudinal data from the 2009 restricted-access High School Longitudinal Survey and a structural equation model. I ask: 

· Does the belief in the ability to afford post-secondary education mediate the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and education expectations (i.e. Identity)?

· Do high school students’ realistic postsecondary education expectations (i.e., Identity) mediate the relationship between childhood SES and later postsecondary education enrollment and degree attainment?

I find that students' perceived ability to pay mediates about 1/3 of the relationship between SES and PS degree expectations, suggesting that affordability beliefs are crucial for helping students form a college-bound identity. Second, I find that PS degree expectations mediate about 1/3 of the relationship between SES and college enrollment, but only 10% between SES and degree attainment. This finding suggests that students with a college-bound identity are more likely to enroll in college and attain a degree. However, the lower mediation effect on degree suggests that these psychosocial levers are less likely to help students graduate. Real financial barriers ultimately prevent many low-SES students from completing their degree. 

My findings are critical for policy design; they suggest that higher education policies should target both economic and psychological levers. For example, policies offering free college to high schoolers might deliver more bang-for-the-buck than equivalent-cost need-based scholarships given in college.

Author

• Ellyn Terry, University of Washington
  Presenting Author