Effects of Sentence Length on Recidivism

• In Event: Incarceration and Reentry

Abstract

Harnessing changes to Minnesota's felony sentencing guidelines policies, this study credibly identifies average effects of marginal changes in prison sentence length on the expected fiscal costs of incarceration and recidivism in order to inform potential changes to sentencing policy. The state changed its formula for calculating criminal history score, both allowing for partial instead of whole custody status points and changing how partial points are rounded, which affected many cases while also leaving many similar cases unaffected. With case-specific administrative data, we precisely model the selection process of each case into a presumptive sentence length in each policy regime, enabling construction of credible comparisons of cases across regime. Each case is linked to subsequent data on initial prison sentence, imprisonment length and fiscal costs, and recidivism. Using difference-in-differences and instrumental variables approaches, we estimate effects of presumptive sentence length changes on initial sentences, served sentences, and recidivism risks. We allow heterogeneous effects across disparate case types.

Author

• Ethan James Ellis, University of Minnesota
  Presenting Author