Power Down, Crime Up? Evidence from Large-Scale Power Outages Data

• In Event: Adaptation to Environmental Effects? Win-Win, Win-Lose, or Lose-Lose?

Abstract

While power outages are widely recognized as disruptive and costly, their causal impact on criminal activity has remained under-explored due to data limitations. This research addresses this gap by presenting the first quantitative, national-level causal evidence demonstrating how electrical disruptions affect short-term changes in crime incidents. Using comprehensive, high-resolution US power outage data from 2018 to 2022 compiled by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), combined with crime data from the FBI's NIBRS and daily weather data from NASA, this research employs high-dimensional fixed effects to compare the county-level crime activities across the severity of outages.

The findings show that increased outage intensity (a product of duration and the number of affected customers) significantly elevates both property and violent crimes. Specifically, a one percent rise in outage intensity increases property crime by 0.161 percent and violent crime by 0.159 percent. The analysis suggests these effects operate through key mechanisms: reduced visibility (e.g., lack of streetlights impairing surveillance) and altered mobility patterns and outdoor congregation. Outages influence individuals to spend less time at home and more time in retail areas, transit stops, and other public spaces, thereby increasing the density of potential victims and lowering search costs for criminals.

The effect of power outage intensity is greater for daytime crimes occurring outside the home and for all nighttime crimes, regardless of location, aligning with the proposed mechanisms of altered mobility and reduced ambient light, respectively. Notably, the effects of outages on crime are less severe in higher-income counties, potentially reflecting better access to resources like backup generators or standalone batteries. Furthermore, the impact diminishes in counties that have previously experienced large-scale outages, indicating community adaptation and investment in protective measures over time.

These results studies the critical link between grid reliability and public safety. This research offers valuable insights for energy infrastructure planning, resilience investment, and crime prevention strategies in an era of increasing grid strain.

Author

• John Kim, Georgia Institute of Technology
  Presenting Author