Are Tobacco Taxes Effective in Reducing Youth Smoking?

• In Event: Unintended Consequences and Tradeoffs in Substance Use Policy

Abstract

We estimate the effect of tobacco taxes on youth cigarette, cigar, and marijuana use. Using data from the Youth Risk Behavioral Surveillance System (1999-2023) and a difference-in-differences approach, we exploit the variation in state cigarette and cigar tax over time to identify causal effects. We examine the cross-tax elasticities of cigarette and cigar use and find that, while an increase in cigar tax leads to a decrease in cigarette use, an increase in cigarette tax increases cigar use. We explain this asymmetry in cross-tax elasticity through a third product, marijuana, the most smoked product among youth. Our findings imply that cigarettes and marijuana are substitutes, while cigars and marijuana are complements. Future anti-tobacco policies must take into account the high prevalence of marijuana and its concurrent role in youth tobacco use.

Author

• Arjun Teotia, Henry Ford Health System
  Presenting Author