The Experience-Adjustment Paradox: Does Past Hurricane Experience Help or Hinder Emergency Managers’ Evacuation Decisions

• In Event: US Crisis Response

Abstract

Emergency evacuation decisions during hurricanes are among the most critical actions taken by public officials under conditions of uncertainty and time pressure. While a growing body of research has explored household evacuation behavior, far less attention has been given to the public servants responsible for issuing evacuation orders—particularly how their past experience with hurricanes and evacuations shapes their decisions. This study addresses that gap by investigating whether prior experience enhances or impairs the quality and timing of evacuation decisions among U.S. emergency managers.

The study builds on the Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model, which posits that experienced individuals often draw from mental models of past events to make rapid decisions. In theory, this experience could aid emergency managers in assessing hurricane threats efficiently. However, past experience may also produce overconfidence, delay, or cognitive anchoring—especially when current hurricane forecasts differ from familiar past events. This dynamic is referred to as the “experience-adjustment paradox.”

To test this, we adapt Dormady et al.’s (2022) experimental design, using simulated hurricane scenarios to evaluate how emergency managers respond to evolving advisory updates. Participants from hurricane-prone states—including Florida, North Carolina, and others—were asked to review forecast data and decide when and whether to issue voluntary or mandatory evacuations. The key explanatory variable—past hurricane experience—is measured through a post-experiment survey that asks whether participants had previously experienced a hurricane and evacuated.

Findings show that while experienced emergency managers are generally more confident and responsive to forecast shifts, some delay action under ambiguous conditions—potentially due to reliance on prior outcomes. This study contributes to behavioral public administration and crisis decision-making research by offering timely insights for Federal Emergency Management Agency and state agencies aiming to improve training and evacuation protocols.

Author

• Victoria Yaa Osei-Ahenkan, The Ohio State University
  Presenting Author