Fired Up: Political Heat and Turnover in the Federal Civil Service

• In Event: Impacts of a First, and now Second, Trump Administration

Abstract

The recent wave of mass firings and administrative upheaval orchestrated by Elon Musk and the DOGE team at the federal government has sent shockwaves through the civil service. These dramatic personnel shifts have not only destabilized agencies but also deeply unsettled the career expectations of those who remain. Even employees who have thus far retained their positions are now forced to reckon with the volatility of federal employment and reconsider their long-term professional commitments. While scholarly interest in how civil servants respond to political pressure and uncertainty is growing, the literature remains underdeveloped, particularly in the context of high-profile, politically driven purges. Building on the precedent set by the Trump Administration's efforts to reshape the federal bureaucracy, this research seeks to understand how political interference and uncertainty affect federal employees’ decisions to stay, leave, or alter their career trajectories. In an era when the independence and expertise of the civil service are under open assault, this inquiry is not only timely but urgent.

We leverage a unique policy shock—the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Accountability and Whistleblower Protection Act of 2017—to examine how intensified political pressure affects federal employee turnover. Prompted by a 2014 scandal at a Phoenix VA hospital, where a secret waitlist hid dangerously long delays in care and contributed to the deaths of multiple veterans, the Act was introduced as a sweeping response to deep-rooted concerns over inefficiency, lack of accountability, and transparency within the VA system. The VA Accountability Act granted authority to the VA Secretary to expedite the removal, demotion, or suspension of employees for misconduct or poor performance. By fundamentally altering civil service protections within a major federal agency, the Act represents a clear instance of political intervention reshaping bureaucratic norms. Using a difference-in-differences design, we exploit this natural experiment to analyze how such reforms—and the heightened atmosphere of political scrutiny and job insecurity they create—influence the decisions of federal employees to remain in or leave public service.

Our analysis reveals that, compared to employees in federal agencies not subject to the same level of political and legislative pressure, the VA experienced a statistically significant increase in overall employee turnover following the implementation of the VA Accountability Act. Specifically, turnover at the VA rose by 1.46 percentage points (p < 0.05). While we did not observe a significant rise in voluntary quits, we found evidence of increased retirement activity. Overall retirements rose by 0.57 percentage points (p < 0.08), with voluntary retirements accounting for a 0.43 percentage point increase (p < 0.10). Moreover, we find no significant change in turnover attributable to reductions in force or dismissals, indicating that the observed increase in turnover was possibly driven by employees choosing to exit—particularly through retirement—rather than being forcibly removed.

Authors

• Intae Choi, Myongji University
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• Weijie Wang, Texas A&M University
  Presenting Author