Post-Disaster Housing Supply and the Risk-Affordability Tradeoff in Floodplain Regulation

• In Event: Disaster Aid, Equity, and Electoral Disruptions: Analyzing the Impact of Climate Hazards and Government Responses

Abstract

This project investigates the impacts of major floods and storms in Florida on housing stock across the quality distribution, and how these effects are mediated by regulations that restrict supply or make it costlier to (re)build in the floodplain. Using tax assessment records, I document that older and smaller units are more likely to be damaged in disasters, and take longer and are less likely to be repaired to pre-disaster values. I use a spatial discontinuity design around regulatory floodplain boundaries, interacted with variation in local regulation intensity based on credited activities in the Community Rating System, to assess the effects of regulation on post-disaster property damage and repair, as well as sale events and prices, for housing of different quality categories and residents of different financial and demographic characteristics. Lastly, I estimate an equilibrium model of post-disaster housing supply and demand, incorporating households' rebuilding decisions and future exposure to flood risk. The model can be used to evaluate the broader housing market impacts and distributional consequences of policies that shape disaster recovery, particularly regulations that constrain development and land use both in and out of the floodplain.

Author

• Serena Xu, University of Wisconsin-Madison
  Presenting Author