Estimated Impact of Removing SNAP Benefit Ban for Those with Drug Felony Convictions

• In Event: Advancing Economic Justice: Employment and Safety Net Approaches

Abstract

When Congress passed the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA), it included a provision imposing a lifetime ban on Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits for individuals convicted of a drug felony. Because a significant portion of individuals who have been involved in the criminal justice system have drug-related offenses, the ban has had a far-reaching impact on available supports for individuals who face challenges in reestablishing financial stability and achieving social reintegration following conviction or incarceration.

States have had the option to remove or modify the ban; over time, 28 states and DC have removed the ban completely while 20 states have retained a modified ban establish specific preconditions for SNAP benefit eligibility, which may pose a significant barrier for accessing benefits. One state, South Carolina, has maintained the full ban.

This study estimates the number of individuals who are likely eligible for and would participate in SNAP who reside in a state that has had a full ban or a modified ban on SNAP participation for individuals with prior drug felony convictions. These estimates are valuable, as there is no national database on convictions and no nationally representative data sources collect data on both convictions and SNAP participation.

To estimate these values, we use predictive machine learning and microsimulation models. First, we use data on convictions and demographics from National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1997) to train machine learning models to predict drug felony conviction status for different age cohorts. We then use selected models to predict felony drug convictions onto linked Current Population Survey and TRIM-3 microsimulation data, which contains information on SNAP participation. We then use data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the Decennial Census to adjust predicted probabilities to match administrative data files on convictions and information from TRIM-3 to estimate participation and benefits among the SNAP-eligible population.

In 2019, we estimate that a little over 1 million people ages 18 to 60 with prior drug felonies would be eligible SNAP benefits in the 21 states with modified or complete bans. Of these, 360,000 to 380,000 could potentially participate in SNAP in the first year. We estimate that these potential participants could receive between $355 million to $376 million in SNAP benefits in 2019, an increase in SNAP benefit expenditures of less than 1 percent (as total SNAP benefits expenditures in 2019 were $60.4 billion).

This analysis provides empirical evidence of the scope of possible beneficiaries if the federal ban on SNAP participation for individuals convicted of a drug felony was repealed. These results suggest that these policy changes could reach a substantial number of Americans and as such, could help alleviate post-release food insecurity and material hardship challenges – issues that contribute to recidivism. This provides further evidence of the reach of collateral consequences of justice system involvement and implications for household financial well-being.

Author

• Walter Campbell, Urban Institute
  Presenting Author