Patterns in Tennessee Charter School Enrollment Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic

• In Event: Post-Pandemic Changes in School Choice Practices and Policies

Abstract

Traditionally, across the United States, most students enroll in their neighborhood school. However, in recent decades, more students have pursued alternative options as school choice continues to expand. This trend accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools, during the 2020-21 school year, charter school enrollment grew by seven percent, the largest increase recorded in the last decade (Veney & Jacobs, 2021). At the same time, enrollment in traditional public schools (TPSs) dropped by over a million students– representing 3.4% of public school students nationally (Dee, 2023; Veney & Jacobs, 2021).

While these trends indicate that more students opted for charter schools over TPSs during the pandemic, there is little evidence regarding how these patterns differ from pre-pandemic school years. One study by the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools (2024) used school-level enrollment counts across 44 states to examine overall descriptive trends. The study found that increases in enrollment in charter schools since 2019-20 have been driven by large increases in Black and Hispanic students. However, the study does not note whether these increases were continuing pre-pandemic trends.

To better understand how the pandemic changed charter school enrollment patterns, we leverage student-level data from the state of Tennessee (which was not included in the NAPCS study above). Specifically, we ask (1) To what extent did Tennessee’s school enrollment patterns differ across school types from prior-, during-, and post-pandemic? (2) Does this differ by school or student characteristics (e.g., school level, school location, student socioeconomic status, prior student achievement)?

We answer these questions with a set of linear probability regression models that use enrollment data spanning 2012-13 through 2023-24. Using charter enrollment as the dependent variable, we examine charter enrollment as a function of student characteristics including gender, race/ethnicity, free-and-reduced lunch status, prior student achievement, and special education and Limited English Proficiency status. Each of these student characteristics is interacted with dummy variables indicating COVID and post-COVID academic years with pre-COVID years serving as the omitted category, allowing us to examine whether the enrollment patterns based on student characteristics changed over time during and after COVID.

While these analyses will allow us to examine the overall patterns of student enrollment in charter schools, it is also important to examine the enrollment patterns of students who chose to enter or exit charter schools during this time. To do so, we use student fixed effect models that restrict the analysis to only students who switched schools during these same periods. Preliminary results show that compared to pre-pandemic school years, a students’ probability of switching into a charter school was 8.3 percentage points higher during the pandemic and 10.8 percentage points higher post-pandemic. Results that describe how this trend varied by student subgroups will be available by the conference.

Overall, the findings of this study will illuminate how the pandemic changed whether/when families make the decision to send their student to a charter school and how these changes varied by student characteristics.

Authors

• Adam Kho, University of Kentucky
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• Shelby Leigh Smith, University of Southern California
  Presenting Author

• Ron W Zimmer, University of Kentucky
  Non-Presenting Co-Author