Investigating the Welfare-to-Work Requirements and Sanction-Lifted Policies Following the COVID-19 Pandemic through an Equity Lens

• In Event: Paid Sick Leave Policies and Precarious Work in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Background and Research Aims

The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program faced challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Business and school closures led to economic instability, hindering participants' compliance with work requirements and resulting in sanctions. In response, the Administration for Children and Families (ACF) issued guidelines encouraging state agencies to leverage TANF flexibilities to support affected families. This issue was widespread enough that 41 states made some changes to their welfare-to-work (WTW) and sanction policies (Shantz et al., 2023).

 

Pre-pandemic studies indicated spatial inequalities in TANF provisions influenced by macroeconomic conditions, caseload racial makeup, and political power (Fording et al., 2007, 2011; Chang et al., 2020). However, the impact of COVID-19 on existing inequities in the decentralized TANF system remains understudied. No studies have analyzed WTW requirements and sanction-lifted policies post-pandemic with an equity lens.

 

This study aims to (1) examine how state macroeconomic conditions, caseload racial compositions, and poverty politics affect TANF COVID-19 policy responses and (2) assess the effectiveness of state-level WTW requirements and sanction-lifted policies in enhancing program accessibility.

 

Methods

We collected TANF data from multiple sources, including the ACF and the Urban Institute’s Welfare Rules Database. Data collection yielded state-level panel data from 2017 to 2023. We used multivariate logistic regression models to test the association between each policy adoption and a set of predictor variables, including macroeconomic conditions, racial compositions, and poverty politics. We then employed a difference-in-difference design with augmented inverse probability weighting, a doubly robust approach (Baker et al., 2025), to examine the dynamic effects of state-level WTW requirements and sanctions-lifted policies on TANF caseload and case closure. We accounted for state-specific socio-economic and demographic characteristics to reduce confounding effects. We also conducted sensitivity analyses that considered data from different sets of states and used alternative model specifications.

 

Results

Preliminary findings indicate that state poverty rates, unemployment rates, the distribution of TANF funding, and the racial composition of caseload were significantly associated with TANF policy decisions in response to COVID-19. We observed heterogeneous policy effects across different periods and racial/ethnic groups. The overall impact of the TANF COVID-19 policy was most pronounced in 2021 and gradually diminished. The policy significantly increased the adult caseload for all racial/ethnic groups except for Asian, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander (ANHPI) populations. The most considerable effects were for Hispanic, American Indian, and Alaskan Native (AIAN) participants. A further analysis of state policy choices on WTW requirement suspensions and sanction removals revealed that the sanction-lifted policy significantly increased the adult caseload for AIAN and Hispanic groups by 41% and 27% (p<.05). At the same time, this policy significantly decreased case closures for AIAN by 25% (p<.05).

 

Conclusion and Implications

This study examines TANF program disparities across US states in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It highlights the role of welfare policy in alleviating pandemic impacts on vulnerable populations. Findings reveal heterogeneous policy effects across racial/ethnic groups and inform equitable WTW practices, particularly relevant for the implementation of the TANF pilot program (2025–2030).

Author

• Yu-Ling Chang, University of California, Berkeley
  Presenting Author