Investigating the Welfare-to-Work Requirements and Sanction-Lifted Policies Following the COVID-19 Pandemic through an Equity Lens

• In Event: Paid Sick Leave Policies and Precarious Work in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Background and Research Aims

The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program faced challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Business and school closures led to economic instability, hindering participants' compliance with work requirements and resulting in sanctions. In response, the Administration for Children and Families (ACF) issued guidelines encouraging state agencies to leverage TANF flexibilities to support affected families. This issue was widespread enough that 41 states made some changes to their welfare-to-work (WTW) and sanction policies (Shantz et al., 2023). However, the impact of COVID-19 on existing inequities in the decentralized TANF system remains understudied. No studies have analyzed WTW requirements and sanction-lifted policies throughout the pandemic period with an equity lens. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of state-level WTW requirements and sanction-lifted policies in enhancing program accessibility.

Methods

We collected TANF data from multiple sources, including the ACF and the Urban Institute’s Welfare Rules Database. Data collection yielded state-level panel data from 2016 to 2023. We employed a difference-in-differences design with augmented inverse probability weighting, a doubly robust approach, to examine the dynamic effects of state-level WTW requirements and sanctions-lifted policies on TANF caseloads and case closures. We accounted for state-specific socio-economic and demographic characteristics to reduce confounding effects. We also conducted sensitivity analyses that considered data from different sets of states and used alternative model specifications.

Results

Preliminary findings indicate heterogeneous policy effects across different periods and racial/ethnic groups. The overall impact of the TANF COVID-19 policy was most pronounced in 2021 and gradually diminished. The policy significantly increased the adult caseload for American Indian and Alaskan Native (AIAN) and Hispanic populations. A further analysis of state policy choices regarding WTW requirement suspensions and sanction removals revealed heterogeneous policy mechanisms across racial and ethnic groups. Over the study period, the WTW requirements-lifted policy significantly increased the adult caseload for Hispanic groups by 49 percent (p<.01). The sanction-lifted policy significantly increased the adult caseload for AIAN and Hispanic groups by 39 percent and 27 percent (p<.05). At the same time, this policy significantly decreased case closures for AIAN by 29% (p<.01). Some short-term policy effects were observed for ANHPI and Black participants, but not for White participants.

Conclusion and Implications
This study examines TANF program disparities across US states in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It highlights the role of welfare policy in alleviating the impacts of the pandemic on vulnerable populations. Findings show varied policy effects across racial/ethnic groups, informing equitable WTW practices amid increased federal focus on work requirements for Medicaid and SNAP after the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

Authors

• Yu-Ling Chang, University of California, Berkeley
  Presenting Author

• Christopher Taylor Brown, University of California, Berkeley
  Non-Presenting Co-Author