Is Unconditional Cash Pro-Marriage?

• In Event: Effects of policies to promote economic and social well-being

Abstract

Whether income support programs disincentivize marriage and disrupt family stability has long generated policy debate. In this paper, we examine the causal impact of monthly unconditional cash transfers on marriage and other measures of family structure during the first three years of children’s lives. We leverage data from the Baby’s First Years (BFY) study, a randomized controlled trial consisting of 1,000 low-income mothers recruited in hospital postpartum wards in four U.S. cities. Mothers were randomized to receive a $333 (“high-cash”) or $20 (“low-cash”) monthly unconditional cash gift for the first 76 months of their child’s life, allowing us to isolate the income effect of economic resources on family structure. Approximately 80% of mothers in the BFY sample were unmarried at the time of their child’s birth. We begin by examining the impact of unconditional cash transfers on marriage. High-cash gift group mothers are 5.2 percentage points (24%) more likely to be married and 4.6 percentage points (18%) less likely than low-cash gift group mothers to be cohabiting with a nonspouse romantic partner one year after birth. Between baseline and age 1, high-cash gift group mothers who were cohabiting at baseline are 14.5 percentage points (77%) more likely than low-cash gift group mothers to transition from cohabitation to marriage. Thus, rather than “dissolving marriages,” the high cash gift increased marriage rates during children’s first year of life. Effects on marriage are diminished after age 1 due to relative increases in marriage among low-cash gift group mothers, suggesting that cash transfers accelerated the timing of marriage. Among mothers who were cohabiting at baseline, the positive effect on marriage to the child’s biological father in particular persists through children’s first three years of life. Next, we evaluate whether unconditional cash transfers increased the overall stability of family structure between birth and age 3, given the well-documented correlation between family stability and children’s wellbeing (Waldfogel et al. 2010). Mothers in the high-cash gift group are 6.2 percentage points less likely to ever enter a new cohabiting relationship between baseline and age 3, a decline of 24% relative to the low-cash gift group. This decline is largest among mothers who were cohabiting with a nonspouse romantic partner at baseline but is also present among mothers who were married or single at baseline. Our results suggest that, in the absence of embedded marriage disincentives, income support can support marriage and improve family stability.

Author

• Hema Shah, Duke University
  Presenting Author