Tailored Incentives for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Pathways: A Cross-Regional Techno-Economic Assessment

• In Event: Policy Pathways in Energy and Aviation Transitions

Abstract

Five years after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the recovering commercial aviation industry faces a quickly increasing demand for jet fuel. This increasing demand combined with the high carbon density of jet fuel makes carbon neutrality a significant challenge for the aviation industry.  

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), defined as alternative fuel made from non-petroleum feedstocks that can reduce emissions from air transportation by up to 94%, is one significant way that users of conventional jet fuel can reduce their greenhouse gas emissions following guidelines set by measures such as the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). Despite industry commitments, SAF is a nascent technology with very limited existing infrastructure and high production costs which pose a barrier to widespread adoption. Addressing these challenges requires an understanding of key cost drivers, including regional variations in feedstock availability, energy prices, and other production inputs. 

This paper explores the economic feasibility of scaling SAF through a techno-economic analysis (TEA) using the ASCENT model, an open-source framework developed to evaluate the relative costs of key production pathways: hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), Fischer-Tropsch (FT), and alcohol-to-jet (ATJ). While built on public literature to model relative cost performance and capital requirements of these processes, ASCENT lacks detailed, location-specific input data required for analysis of regional cost variation. This gap motivates the need for more comprehensive study of regional cost parameters to better inform SAF policy incentives. 

To address this gap, the study evaluates how regional resource availability and market conditions affect the minimum selling prices (MSPs) of SAF in different global regions. It focuses on major aviation hubs across North America, Europe, and Asia and examines feedstock-specific price ranges for forest and agricultural residues, ethanol, isobutanol, municipal solid waste (MSW), and fats, oils, and greases (FOGs). Results from the ASCENT model, modified with region-specific input assumptions, demonstrate that feedstock cost is the primary driver of MSPs. Additionally, conversion efficiency, regional energy costs and local policy environments significantly impact production feasibility. 

These findings carry important implications for climate and energy policy. First, “one-size-fits-all” national or international SAF mandates may fall short unless paired with regionally differentiated incentives. The results also highlight the need for targeted policy instruments such as production tax credits, feedstock subsidies, and infrastructure investments that reflect regional comparative advantages. Finally, the analysis supports a more geographically tailored approach to SAF deployment, where specific pathways are prioritized based on local conditions. By informing how policymakers design SAF incentives, allocate funding, and select demonstration project locations, this study provides actionable insights to support more efficient aviation decarbonization. 

Authors

• Olivia Guarinello, Georgia Institute of Technology
  Presenting Author

• Daniel Matisoff, Georgia Institute of Technology
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• riley chodak, Georgia Institute of Technology
  Non-Presenting Co-Author