Poster #113 - The State of Social Control: Exploring the Relationship between Exclusionary Discipline and Incarceration Across States

• In Event: Friday Poster Reception

Abstract

Scholars highlight disturbing similarities between the presence of social control in schools and society via discipline and criminal justice systems, particularly for Black youth (Irby, 2013, 2014; Little & Welsh, 2022). Parallels in racially disproportionate exclusion due to subjective offenses challenge the narrative that exclusion mitigates violent/physical threats (Cohen, 1985; Johnson & Jabbari, 2022; King & Wheelock, 2007; Legette & Anyon, 2023; Skiba et al., 2002; Vera Institute, 2024). In this study, we investigate associations between in-school and out-of-school social control, as measured by incarceration and suspension, as well as the extent to which racial threat explains this control. 
We source school discipline data from the 2011-12, 2013-14, 2015-16, and 2017-18 Civil Rights Data Collection (CRDC) for school-level discipline and enrollment data; we collapse at the state level. From the Bureau of Justice Statistics, we obtain annual state-level counts of the number of people incarcerated (2012-2018). We draw state demographic and economic variables using American Community Survey 1-Year estimates, the National Conference of State Legislatures, and the Correlates of State Policy Project. N-counts vary in the tables below as the full panel of racial attitudes data is pending.
A number scholars highlight that intersecting systems of antiblackness contribute to the suffering of Black educators, families, and students by creating a social control net (Sobti & Welsh, 2023; Ward et al., 2021). Furthermore, there is limited research testing the applicability of a racial threat hypothesis in education (Payne & Welch, 2010, 2015).  Political scientists use racial threat to connect criminal justice policy to welfare policy, but not to education policy (Ojeda et al., 2019). 
We first describe variation in suspension and incarceration rates across regions and risk tertiles. Using linear regression models with year fixed effects and state-level error clustering to examine the association between the prevalence of and disparities in school discipline and state-level characteristics (e.g., ethnoracial composition and racial ideology), testing the extent to which racial threat theory explains exclusion. We repeat this using incarceration rates and disparities. We conclude testing the extent to which state-level discipline rates and disparities predict incarceration rates and disparities, overall and by racial/ethnic group. We explore the heterogeneity of these relationships by the form of discipline, disparity measure, race and ethnicity, and region.
Results indicate measured support for a racial threat hypothesis. Across regions, all students’ ISS risk positively covaries with Black enrollment; Black students’ risk covaries negatively in the South and positively in the Midwest and West. Increases in Black population and antiblack attitudes are statistically and practically associated with increased overall ISS risk, while higher Hispanic population predicts lower ISS risk – overall and for Hispanic students.The direction and significance of the exclusion-state characteristic relationship varies by disparity measure and target group. Discipline disparity is a significant predictor of incarceration disparity across models. Corresponding population change is positively associated with incarceration disparity for Black residents, but negatively for Hispanic residents. Together, findings advance research operationalizing this theory by using both racial composition and attitudes and affirm policymakers’ and practitioners' focus on subjective behaviors driving disparities.

Authors

• Kathryn Elsa James McGraw, Vanderbilt University
  Presenting Author

• Richard O Welsh, University of Georgia
  Non-Presenting Co-Author