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Extreme weather disasters are increasing in frequency and severity, with major consequences for the delivery of publicly funded early childhood education. Between 2005 and 2014, the average annual number of weather-related disasters in the United States rose by 44 percent compared to pre-2000 levels (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, 2015). These events have well-documented negative effects on children’s physical health, mental health, and learning (Cuartas et al., 2024; Holmes, 2002; La Greca et al., 2013). Early Head Start and Head Start serve nearly one million children from low-income households annually (Office of Head Start, n.d.), offering essential educational, health, and family supports. Yet little is known about how disasters disrupt Head Start operations or how policy can reduce those impacts. This study fills that gap by providing actionable evidence to guide federal and state efforts to maintain access to early learning during crises.
This paper addresses the question: How do federally declared extreme weather disasters affect the operation and service delivery of Early Head Start and Head Start programs in the United States? The analysis focuses on key outcomes including site closures, enrollment, developmental screenings, and teacher hiring. It also explores variation based on whether services were disrupted or sustained.
Methodology
The study links five years of administrative data from the Head Start Program Information Report and the Head Start Service Location datasets with Federal Emergency Management Agency disaster declarations and demographic data from the American Community Survey. Using Federal Information Processing Standards codes, we matched program sites to counties affected by disasters. Fixed-effects regression models estimated the effects of disaster exposure, controlling for time-invariant program characteristics and time-varying community conditions. This approach supports credible estimates of how disasters affect service delivery.
Results
From 2012 to 2017, 43 percent of Early Head Start and Head Start sites operated in counties that experienced at least one federally declared disaster. These sites had the capacity to serve more than half a million children. Programs in affected communities were significantly more likely to close temporarily or permanently in the year after a disaster. Among those that remained open, enrollment increased by 3.5 percent the following year. However, the share of children receiving timely developmental screenings declined by 2.7 percentage points. There was no significant change in teacher hiring or vacancy rates.
Conclusions and Policy Implications
These findings show that extreme weather disasters disrupt key early childhood services, even when programs stay open. To mitigate these effects, we recommend the following federal actions:
Expand disaster planning support. The Office of Head Start should provide technical assistance, templates, and training to help programs maintain services during disruptions.
Designate early childhood programs as essential. Federal agencies should recognize these programs as essential in disaster response to prioritize recovery and funding access.
Coordinate across systems. Strengthen collaboration among early childhood, emergency management, and infrastructure agencies to support faster recovery for children and families.
These actions would help protect foundational early learning services as environmental threats continue to grow.