Tracing Policies from Introduction to Adoption: A Text Analysis Approach to Childcare Legislation in Washington State

• In Event: State-Level Politics and Policy Change

Abstract

The United States has faced a persistent shortage of accessible and affordable childcare, with the COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbating this ongoing challenge. Nevertheless, issue perceptions alone are not sufficient to influence policy action; Even when childcare is framed as a pressing policy issue, it may not coincide with the political will or viable solutions necessary for policy change. Using the context of Washington State, this study investigates the challenges and successes of adopting childcare-related legislation over a twenty-year period. The following questions motivate our research: How has the focus of childcare-related bills evolved from 2003 to 2024? What topics in childcare-related bills are more likely to pass versus those that fail? What factors most influence policy adoption?

We consider these questions through the lens of the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF). Although much of MSF research focuses on the agenda window – examining how issues gain attention and enter the policy agenda – this study highlights the process that unfolds once an agenda window opens. Specifically, we examine how fully developed proposals transition from bills ready for agenda-setting to bargaining over their concrete design and ultimate adoption as statutes. By focusing on the political stream, this study aims to understand how decision coupling occurs as political entrepreneurs mobilize support and navigate political dynamics to secure the necessary majority for bill adoption.

Considering that each bill represents a distinct policy proposal, analysis of the introduced bill and the amendments or changes that occur later in the legislative process provides the opportunity  to understand the initial intent and priorities behind the legislation. We gather all childcare-related bills in Washington state from 2003 to 2024. The sample comprises 412 introduced bills and 136 passed bills. We preprocess bill texts and utilize Structural Topic Modeling (STM) to extract underlying topics from legislative texts, identifying patterns in policy focuses over time. Our analysis reveals that while some topics (e.g. early childhood care and education) consistently dominate across both introduced and passed bills, others face greater attrition between proposal and enactment. Using multivariate regression, we further examine the extent to which various factors influence bill adoption. Preliminary results suggest that a primary sponsor’s prior legislative success in childcare-related bills significantly increases the likelihood of policy adoption. In contrast, neither the number of cosponsors nor party affiliation appears to exert a measurable influence. Ongoing analysis incorporating media narratives and economic conditions will offer further insights into the factors corresponding with policy adoption.

This study enhances our understanding of the evolution of childcare-related legislation over time, identifying the topics more likely to pass and the key factors influencing policy adoption. Findings also expand our understanding of MSF by focusing on the process of policy adaptation and selection with the policy window. Specifically, as the political stream emerges as the focal point during the process of decision coupling, our findings elucidate the factors influencing the decision window and highlight the pivotal role of political entrepreneurs—namely, legislators—in facilitating policy adoption.

Author

• Yu-Heng Jung, University of Washington
  Presenting Author