Bullets to Ballots: Proximity to Crime and Political Behavior

• In Event: Crime & Drugs, Student Session

Abstract

This paper examines the causal relationship between exposure to non violent and violent crime and voter turnout using rich administrative data from Houston, Texas. We link geocoded records of both non-violent and violent crime incidents with individual-level voter registration and turnout data to analyze how proximity to crime affects political participation. To identify the short-run effects of crime exposure, we adopt an event-study difference-in-differences design introduced by Markarian (2022), comparing voting behavior of individuals who lived near crimes that occurred just before the 2016 general election to those exposed to similar crimes shortly after. By exploiting the precise timing of crimes relative to the election and focusing on voters in close geographic proximity tothe events, we isolate variation that is plausibly exogenous to broader neighborhood trends or individual characteristics.This approach allows us to estimate the immediate behavioral response to localized violence in the days leading up to a high-salience election. Our preliminary finds hetergenous results, with the strongest results being individuals identifying as non-partisan. Overall, individuals exposed to extremely violent crimes such as murder shortly before the election are significantly more likely to vote, but less likely to vote in events such as robberies. These results suggest that recent experiences of criminal activity may engage or suppress political engagement, potentially due to heightened fear, anxiety, or disillusionment with public institutions. Our study contributes to a growing literature on the political consequences of social disorder by providing new evidence on how acute safety concerns influence democratic participation. The findings highlight the importance of public safety not only for individual well-being but also for the functioning of representative democracy

Author

• Jose Rosa, University of California, Merced
  Presenting Author