Poster #127 - Unpacking the Forces Driving Local Social Policy Discretion in Welfare Eligibility

• In Event: Friday Poster Reception

Abstract

Welfare eligibilities reflect the government’s priorities, values, and underlying philosophy on social welfare. How policymakers maneuver the eligibility conditions to delineate the ‘deserving’ and ‘undeserving’ poor has profound economic and well-being consequences for beneficiaries. This study examines the drivers behind local policy choices in welfare eligibility. A theoretical model is proposed and contrasted with Western frameworks to analyze how variations in the eligibility rules (e.g., income, assets, conduct) of China’s Minimum Livelihood Guarantee Scheme (Dibao), the flagship social assistance programmes are shaped by social, political, fiscal, and horizontal factors. Specifically, this study investigates whether these variations are driven by social protection, social control, or social stabilization functions; whether they reflect local politicians’ priorities or responsiveness to public opinion; whether local governments engage in a race to the top or bottom in competition with neighboring jurisdictions; and whether they are influenced by local economic and financial capacities.

A panel dataset consisting of the urban Dibao eligibility index and social, political, fiscal, and horizontal variables from 31 provinces spanning 2010 to 2023 was constructed (N=434). The Dibao eligibility index is a composite measure that reflects the stringency of eligibility criteria across six domains: income, assets, lifestyle, conduct, family composition and obligations, and status. Preliminary results from fixed effects models reveal that social factors, such as unemployment rate and poverty rate, and local officials’ characteristics, such as educational background and relevant poverty-related working experience, play a significant role in shaping local governments’ eligibility rules for low-income and vulnerable populations. Additionally, the importance of these determinants varies across different eligibility domains. These findings advance the understanding of how decentralized welfare systems balance social welfare objectives with political and fiscal constraints. 

Author

• Peng Chenhong, The University of Hong Kong
  Presenting Author