Upzoning and Displacement: Examining upzoning’s role in residential sorting and neighborhood change

• In Event: Zoning, Regulations, and Housing Supply

Abstract

Contemporary zoning policies have perpetuated the racial and economic segregation created by earlier racially exclusionary policies (Rothstein 2017; Rothwell and Massey 2009, 2010). In response to the negative history of zoning, there has been a recent push by both local and national governments to enact or encourage zoning reforms. These reforms involve a municipality increasing its allowable residential density, or upzoning, in hopes of increasing its housing stock and affordability and ultimately making its jurisdiction more accessible to historically marginalized groups. Recent research on zoning reforms has focused on components of the upzoning process but not the process in its entirety (Freemark 2020, 2023; Furth and Webster 2023; Kuhlmann 2021; Stacy et al. 2023). Evidence on the last step in the process, the relationship between increased housing supply and the racial and economic composition of places, is scarce, and existing results are mixed (Pennington 2021; Whittemore 2017). Recent studies of upzoning in New York City show evidence that upzoning is associated with an increase in the percentage of non-Hispanic White residents and signs of gentrification, suggesting that upzoning may lead to the displacement of communities of color, but these studies do not consider the role of changes in the housing supply and are at the aggregate level (Davis 2021; Kim and Lee 2024). The effect of upzoning on existing communities and individual-level mobility is largely unclear.

In this paper, I examine the relationship between upzoning and residential mobility. I begin by exploring where upzoning in New York City occurs before turning to the following research questions: (1) How does upzoning relate to residential mobility? (2) How does housing production moderate the relationship between upzoning and mobility? (3) How does subsidized housing moderate the relationship between upzoning and mobility? (4) How does upzoning change the neighborhood conditions of people who remain in upzoned areas? I do so using unique residential history data from Infutor to examine the relationship between upzoning and residential mobility. I build on prior work examining the relationship between upzoning and aggregate-level neighborhood change by examining individual-level residential mobility.

I find that upzoning increases the likelihood of moving compared to non-upzoned areas. However, when looking at the timing of this relationship, the likelihood of residents moving out of upzoned areas increased in the years leading up to the implementation of an upzoning initiative, suggesting that these neighborhoods may have already been changing, or there are anticipatory effects before the implementation of such reforms. Additionally, living in subsidized housing lowers the likelihood of an individual moving regardless of the upzoning initiative. Individuals who stay in upzoned areas experience shifts in their neighbor’s demographics, with neighborhoods becoming slightly more advantaged than individuals who leave upzoned areas. Taken together, these results show the complicated nature of upzoning, housing, and demographic shifts. Rezoning initiatives may be a response to the early stages of neighborhood change, and upzoning alone may not directly cause an increase in residential mobility, but instead, be an indicator of increased neighborhood desirability among developers and business interests.

Author

• Laura R Sullivan, Cornell University
  Presenting Author