Crisis-Induced Policy Change: Evidence from The Role of Advocacy Coalitions in Shaping Coal Power Policies

• In Event: Transition Toward Decarbonization: Cross-National Perspectives on Transformative and Collaborative Policy Approaches

Abstract

The role of crises in driving policy change is a complex and nuanced issue in policy studies. While numerous studies have examined how crises can trigger policy shifts, the evidence remains mixed—some crises result in significant changes, while others do not. Researchers have investigated various characteristics of crises, such as their magnitude and degree of exogeneity, to explain this variation. However, the underlying mechanisms through which crises influence policy change are still not well understood.

To address this gap, this study investigates how the unexpected energy crisis in China in 2021 influenced national policies on coal-fired power plants. We collected two types of data from 2018 to 2023: (1) official records detailing the central government's stated reasons for approving coal-fired power plants, and (2) news articles covering the energy crisis. Our data show that the energy crisis contributed to several major policy shifts in the coal power sector, culminating in a record-breaking 106 GW of new coal-fired power plant approvals in 2022—the highest annual total since 2015. Preliminary findings indicate a notable shift in the justification for these approvals, with a transition from emphasizing "efficiency" and "emissions" before the crisis to highlighting "energy security" afterward.

In exploring the mechanisms behind these crisis-induced policy changes, we draw on insights from the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) and the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF). Leveraging news articles, we examine how different coalitions mobilized during the crisis to engage in framing contests that shaped the definition of the problem and proposed solutions. These framing processes facilitated the coupling of the politics, problem, and policy streams, contributing to the observed policy changes. Preliminary analysis suggests that the pro-coal coalition effectively used the energy crisis to blame the rapid transition toward renewables for the supply shortfalls, while positioning coal as essential for ensuring energy security and supporting future renewable development. This study highlights the strategic role of advocacy coalitions in defining problems and shaping solutions during crises, offering new insights into the mechanisms of crisis-induced policy change.

Authors

• YU XIAO, Florida State University
  Presenting Author

• Xue Gao, Florida State University
  Non-Presenting Co-Author