Trends in Undergraduate Postsecondary Program Enrollment through the COVID-19 Pandemic

• In Event: Community Colleges in Changing Labor Markets: Enrollment Trends and Workforce Alignment

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic led to historic disruptions in all dimensions of life in the United States, and higher education was no exception. Students and their families faced economic uncertainty that increased concerns about their ability to pay for education. Colleges and universities closed their campuses, sometimes for extended periods of time, and transitioned learning activities to online or hybrid modes of delivery.  After reopening, institutions managed new concerns related to class sizes, spacing between students, and other public health considerations. The range of disruptions and responses to the pandemic are likely to have influenced student’s educational decision-making, including choices about which occupations, industries or related postsecondary credentials to study. 

This paper assesses how the pandemic affected undergraduate enrollment in colleges and universities, with a focus on how these effects vary across programs in different fields of study.  We use newly developed administrative data on program enrollment reported by institutions to the National Student Loan Data System (NSLDS) for all students who receive federal support to attend college between 2015-2016 and 2023-2024. We measure enrollment at each institution, classified by their program and credential level.

These new data provide a more up to date and granular view of enrollment trends compared to typically available information. Data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) have a considerable lag and do not allow for disaggregated reporting by detailed field of study or program. Our data also provide a more complete picture of national trends relative to existing analyses that are specific to certain programs, institutions, or states.  

In our main analysis we estimate the extent to which each program’s enrollment during and after the pandemic deviated from its trend prior to the pandemic. We then consider explanations for patterns of enrollment changes, including “supply-side” explanations involving the difficulty of offering some programs online, and “demand-side” explanations related to students’ shifting preferences for different types of careers in the wake of the pandemic.

The 2020-2021 award year began with most programs still being offered remotely. In that award year the typical undergraduate program had 8-10% lower enrollment than its pre-pandemic trend would have suggested. The aggregate patterns, however, mask considerable variability across sectors and fields. At four-year colleges, enrollments were relatively stable until 2024 after an initial drop in 2020. For-profit colleges weathered the pandemic, expanding and maintaining enrollment since 2020. Community college enrollment was hit particularly hard in this first full year of the pandemic, and overall enrollment had still not recovered by 2024. For programs in some fields – such as in Liberal Arts, Security and Protective Services, and even in parts of Health – enrollment had already been in decline in the years before the pandemic emerged. In many of these cases, the pandemic accelerated existing patterns of enrollment loss. For other programs and fields, such as in the industrial trades, large declines experienced at the onset of the pandemic ended up being transitory as short-run supply constraints were removed and enrollment recovered.

Authors

• Michel Grosz, Federal Trade Commission
  Presenting Author

• Rajeev Darolia, University of Kentucky
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• Jordan D Matsudaira, American University
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• Kevin Stange, University of Michigan
  Non-Presenting Co-Author