The Impact of Ending the Rape-Kit Backlog on Sexual Assaults, Arrests, and Convictions

• In Event: Policing and Public Safety

Abstract

Sexual assault is a pervasive problem in the U.S., with one in four women and one in 26 men experiencing attempted or completed rape in their lifetime. Despite its prevalence, rape is a crime that often goes unpunished: estimates suggest that fewer than 1% of rapes result in a conviction. To ameliorate this problem, state governments across the U.S. have implemented laws mandating the testing of sexual assault kits to identify perpetrators and provide physical evidence that can lead to a conviction. This paper uses the staggered adoption of state laws mandating the testing of all previously untested sexual assault kits and newly acquired kits in a difference-in-differences framework to identify the effects on sexual assault, arrests for sexual assault, convictions, sentence lengths, and recidivism for sexual assault.

Effects on many these outcomes are theoretically ambiguous. If these laws serve a deterrent effect (by increasing the expected probability of getting caught or convicted) or an incapacitation effect (by incarcerating perpetrators), they may decrease the number of sexual assaults. However, if these laws signal to sexual assault victims that law enforcement will take their allegations seriously, victims may be more likely to report assaults to law enforcement. Hence, the net effect on reported sexual assaults is ambiguous. Relatedly, arrests for sexual assaults may increase if alleged perpetrators are identified through DNA evidence, but if this forensic evidence is instead primarily used to build a stronger case against an already-identified defendant, arrests may not increase.

Effects on reported sexual assaults and arrests come from the National Incident-Based Reporting System, while effects on incarceration and recidivism come from the National Corrections Reporting Program. Preliminary results suggest that while these laws do not have an effect on reported sexual assaults, laws mandating the testing of new sexual assault kits increase the proportion of inmates incarcerated for rape and other sexual offenses. These results have important policy implications as to the effects and effectiveness of these laws.

Author

• Anne M. Burton, University of Texas, Dallas
  Presenting Author