Natural Disasters and Land Use Dynamics: Evidence from Earthquake-Induced Deforestation

• In Event: Crisis and Change: How Environmental Shocks Reshape Policy, Labor, and Land

Abstract

Understanding how seismic shocks influence land use dynamics has direct implications on climate change mitigation and adaptation. The 2015 earthquake in Nepal affected approximately 8 million people, resulting in an economic loss of 10 billion US dollars. This article exploits geo-spatial remote sensing data on changes in land conversion among 3,983 villages within different radii of the earthquake epicenter across several years before and after the incidence of the 2015 earthquake. Our difference-in-differences (DiD) estimates show that earthquake-affected villages located within 30-120 kilometers (kms) of the epicenter saw a significant rise in land conversion from savannas and forests to croplands. These earthquake-induced changes in land conversion diminish with distance, with an average decrease in cropland conversion of 4 square meters per km of distance from the epicenter. Results illustrate that villages with larger agricultural investments converted more cropland from deforestation, implying that earthquake-affected households prioritized short-term agricultural gains over environmental considerations. Findings suggest that while high-investment regions adapt by intensifying agricultural production, low-investment counterparts may require supplementary support to recover from natural disasters.

Authors

• Youpei Yan
  Presenting Author

• Jayash Paudel, University of Massachusetts at Amherst
  Non-Presenting Co-Author