Developing Subjective Indicators for National-Level Demographic Resilience: Bridging Gaps in Resilience and Demographic Research

• In Event: Crossroads of Change: How Migration, Aging, and Fertility Reshape Nations

Abstract

Rapid demographic aging and declining fertility rates have created structural pressures on societies worldwide, challenging healthcare systems, economic sustainability, and intergenerational solidarity. Traditional resilience frameworks primarily focus on sudden external shocks (Saja et al., 2019; Copeland et al., 2020), inadequately addressing endogenous, irreversible demographic transitions such as aging. Responding to this gap, we propose a subjective demographic resilience framework that integrates individuals' perceived adaptive capacities and dynamic social responses, grounded in the coping, adaptive, and transformative (CAT) model of resilience (Keck & Sakdapolrak, 2013; Obrist et al., 2010).

Unlike static indicators that overlook emotional and attitudinal responses, subjective resilience emphasizes how individuals evaluate their own and society’s capacities based on lived experiences (Jones & D’Errico, 2019; Qamar, 2023). Such an approach is crucial for accurately capturing the practical effectiveness of policies and the real-world responsiveness of institutions. Policies promoting delayed retirement, dual elderly households, and anti-ageism initiatives exemplify dynamic adaptive behaviors that shape institutional feasibility and social acceptance (Marsh & McConnell, 2010; Bottazzi et al., 2018).

We apply this integrated framework to Taiwan, projected to become a super-aged society by 2025, with simultaneous low fertility and shifting migration patterns (National Development Council, 2020). Using a nationally representative survey conducted in November 2024 (N=1,250), we assessed subjective resilience across three core dimensions derived from international aging policy frameworks: Healthcare and Eldercare resources (HE), Employment and Economic Security (EES), and Cultural Inclusion (CI). Items were adapted through expert consultations and validated international scales, reflecting both local context and universal applicability.

Exploratory factor analysis confirmed a single-factor structure with strong internal consistency (Cronbach’s α: HE=.94, EES=.77, CI=.77) and factor loadings above .65 across items (HE: .83–.88; EES: .52–.93; CI: .79). Descriptive analyses indicated that respondents perceived the highest resilience in CI (M=2.97), reflecting relatively robust societal trust and intergenerational solidarity. Perceptions of resilience were slightly lower in EES (M=2.88) and lowest in HE (M=2.73), suggesting greater concerns regarding healthcare preparedness and economic stability.

By explicitly addressing subjective perceptions, this demographic resilience framework bridges gaps between policy design, societal expectations, and actual adaptive behaviors, offering policymakers a nuanced tool for monitoring institutional effectiveness and guiding adaptive governance. Our study advances resilience theory in demographic contexts, providing empirical insights into enhancing societal adaptability in aging societies.

Author

• Wei-Yu Lin, National Taiwan University
  Presenting Author