Poster #76 - Low-Fertility Family Policies and Suicide Rates: Panel Analysis of Korean Local Governments

• In Event: Saturday Poster Luncheon

Abstract

South Korea's total fertility rate dropped to 0.72 in 2023—less than half of the OECD average of 1.51—spurring an unprecedented expansion of pro-natalist initiatives such as parental-leave supplements, child allowances, and lump-sum birth grants. Although these programs are designed to encourage births, their discourse is anchored in a nuclear-family norm that can stigmatize or marginalize those who remain unmarried. We hypothesize that greater family-policy spending raises suicide rates among unmarried adults, especially unmarried women of childbearing age who are outside the programs' implicit targets, as this "family-first" framing may impose additional psychological pressure that translates into higher suicide risk.

To test this claim, we compile a novel panel covering all 229 Korean local governments (si/gun/gu) from 2005 to 2022. The dataset merges (1) official regional suicide statistics, (2) itemized spending on birth grants, childcare subsidies, and parental-leave top-ups from Local Finance 365 Database (deflated to 2023 USD with the GDP deflator), and (3) socioeconomic controls, including marriage rates, employment conditions, fertility trends, and population composition. Exploiting variations in policy implementation timing and spending levels across jurisdictions, we apply two-way fixed-effects difference-in-differences (TWFE-DID) models with heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors clustered at the municipality level to estimate the relationship between family policy expansion and suicide rates across demographic groups.

By focusing on how pro-natalist spending may unintentionally shape mental-health outcomes, this study broadens the evaluation criteria for demographic policy beyond fertility counts or labor-market effects. Pending final estimation, results will inform policymakers on whether and how fertility incentives should be paired with mental-health safeguards, such as targeted counseling services and anti-stigma campaigns, to protect the well-being and socio-cultural inclusion of both married and unmarried citizens, including those who remain outside traditional family structures.

Author

• Nagyeong Lee, Seoul National University
  Presenting Author