Poster #136 - Universal FAFSA Policy in Illinois

• In Event: Saturday Poster Luncheon

Abstract

After decades of growth, college enrollment among recent high school graduates in the United States has taken a downturn (National Center for Education Statistics, 2023), while gaps in bachelor’s degree attainment are increasing (Cahalan et al., 2022). Federal, state, and institutional student aid programs aim to ease financial constraints that limit college enrollment (Dynarski, Page, & Scott-Clayton, 2022). Yet, students who might benefit the most often do not file the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) (Gellman & Meyer, 2023). To increase FAFSA completion, several states are adopting “Universal FAFSA” policies, which make FAFSA mandatory for graduating high school. The policy was pioneered by Louisiana in 2018, and 13 states have adopted it since (NCAN, 2024).

Only two published studies have assessed the effects of Universal FAFSA on college enrollment. In Louisiana, college enrollment rose by 1–2 percentage points overall (Deneault, 2023), while in Texas it increased by 2.0 and 2.7 percentage points only among schools with low pre-policy FAFSA completion (Kim, 2025). The overall benefits of Universal FAFSA remain ambiguous. The policy could reduce uncertainty about eligibility and help students overcome inaction, resulting in higher FAFSA completion, aid receipt, and college enrollment. However, schools might lack the resources to provide guidance to students (Mellor & Middlebrook, 2024) and the policy could divert counselors’ time, resulting in unintended effects. Furthermore, the aid received might still not be sufficient for students to enroll in college.

This paper adds to the scarce evidence on Universal FAFSA policies by assessing the impact on college enrollment of the policy adopted by Illinois in 2021. We constructed a panel data set of 593 regular public high schools from the 2017 to 2022 school years (N=3558) with information about college enrollment, FAFSA completion, graduation rates, demographics, and school characteristics. Administrative data were obtained from the Office of Federal Student Aid, the Illinois State Board of Education, and the National Center for Education Statistics.

The study relies on a difference-in-differences identification strategy, which compares the difference between schools in the highest decile of FAFSA completion in the pre-policy period and schools in the lower deciles to the difference between these two groups after the policy adoption. The identification strategy assumes that these groups would have evolved similarly in the absence of the policy. We conduct an event study to assess this assumption.

Preliminary findings suggest that the policy increased FAFSA completion by 4.5 percentage points, a 7 percent increase relative to the comparison group. We also find larger impacts on FAFSA completion in schools with lower student-to-teacher ratios -that may have had greater capacity to provide support to students-, a result that suggests the importance of providing adequate resources for implementation. Nonetheless, these gains did not translate into higher college enrollment in the short run. We find no effects on overall college enrollment, including enrollment in four-year institutions and two-year institutions. This result highlights the need for comprehensive approaches that address academic and financial factors limiting college enrollment.

Author

• Maria Luisa Vasquez, George Washington University
  Presenting Author