Effects of California Pre-k Expansion on Local Childcare Markets

• In Event: Understanding ECE Access: New Evidence on the Dynamics of U.S. Child Care Supply and Demand

Abstract

California is undergoing a multi-year expansion of its Transitional Kindergarten (TK) program, aiming to provide universal pre-kindergarten (UPK) to all four-year-olds by the 2025–26 school year. While the policy seeks to increase early education access, it may have unintended consequences for the broader childcare market, particularly for infants and toddlers who are not direct beneficiaries of the program. Unlike UPK models in states such as Georgia and Florida, where pre-k is delivered through public and private providers, California’s TK is exclusively offered by public schools. This distinction could intensify shifts in supply and demand across the rest of the childcare system, especially in a state where infant-toddler care is already scarce and costly.

This study investigates whether California’s UPK expansion has reduced access to childcare for children under age four. We explore effects on three outcomes at the zip code level from 2010 to 2023: (1) the number of children served by licensed providers, (2) changes in licensed capacity, and (3) enrollment changes among subsidized providers.

We exploit variation in the timing of Transitional Kindergarten (TK) adoption across California school districts using a difference-in-differences research design, focusing on implementation effects at the zip code level. By comparing areas that adopted UPK earlier with those that adopted later, we estimate the causal impact of the expansion on the availability of infant and toddler care.

To construct our analytic dataset, we merge multiple administrative sources. Data on TK implementation and enrollment between 2011 and 2021 come from the California Department of Education (CDE). Measures of the number of children served by childcare providers at the zip code level are derived from the Early Learning Needs Assessment Tool (ELNAT) developed by AIR. Information on licensing changes among childcare providers is obtained from the CDE, while enrollment figures for subsidized providers are drawn from restricted-access admin data from the California Department of Social Services.

Preliminary findings suggest that UPK expansion is associated with a significant decrease in the number of children served by center-based childcare providers, approximately a 0.5% reduction in total enrollment at the zip code level. While all children zero to three years old are affected, the decline is more pronounced for children under 12 months old, a particularly expensive group to care for due to licensing requirements (e.g., the highest staff-child ratios). We also observe a similar decline among family-based childcare providers; however, violations of key methodological assumptions do not allow us to isolate the effect of the policy, as alternative mechanisms may be at play.

These early findings indicate that California’s UPK expansion may reshape the childcare market, potentially reducing access for the youngest children. As policymakers propel universal pre-k, it is critical to understand how such programs interact with the broader early childhood ecosystem. Addressing the potential displacement of infant-toddler care, particularly in high-cost states like California, contributes to ensuring equitable access across all age groups. Ongoing analyses will explore changes in provider capacity and subsidized enrollment to inform better policy responses that support early care and education.

Authors

• Juan Camilo Cristancho, University of California Irvine
  Presenting Author

• Nicholas James Ainsworth, University of California, Irvine
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• Jade Vanessa Marcus Jenkins, University of California, Irvine
  Non-Presenting Co-Author